Thursday, October 6, 2016

Trade Review: WEB

As the title suggests..

Let's start with the set-up.

I have been eyeing this stock ever since it held that 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement Level.
But I never bought because there were no signs of strength.
I was waiting for it to breakout of the 20MA.


Yesterday came, and it closed above the 20MA.

I bought. With a cutpoint below the 20MA.

Right after the close, news came out that Ongpin sold his shares at 2.60. That's less than half of the current price. 


As much as I'd like to stay away from news and rumours, things like this are bound to appear on your news feed (somehow). It's up to you how to deal with it. I didn't do anything.

I just monitored my position the following day, ready to cut. The stock gapped up at the open and rallied strongly. I did not sell when it reached the 7.00 levels during the first hour of the trading day. Because hey, let your profits run right? And as I saw that things were looking good, I averaged up at 7.15 only to sell it at 7.00 because my cutpoint was hit. That was yesterday's position + today's. I profited some.

But I was still watching it. Waiting for a re-entry.
I saw it go back to AOTS at a price point that offers a really good Risk-Reward Ratio.
I hesitated. I didn't buy.
Instead I bought at a higher price (7.25) only to be shaken out a few flucs down.
I did not follow my cutpoint. I sold a few minutes before lunch. I lost some.


Right after lunch, it broke out and rallied to my target price (9.10) and closed far above all of my entry prices.



Here are what I believe to be my errors on this trade:

1st error - My initial position was bought using the Daily Chart. My 2nd position was bought using the intraday chart. When my intraday cutpoint was hit, I sold everything. An option could be selling only the 2nd position and leaving the initial position and deciding what to do with it at the close.

2nd error - When I tried to trade it again, I hesitated on a good Risk-Reward Ratio set-up. And although I could only say this now, I had recency bias back then. I was afraid that this position, too, would be cut. So I did not buy.

3rd error - When it rallied right after I passed on it, I chased. Making my average entry price, higher than if I didn't hesitate a few minutes back. And because I didn't like my entry, I was easily shaken out.

4th error - OR NOT - The stock broke out of its previous high and rallied strongly to my set target price. During this time, I was in transit. I could have checked it thru mobile. I know the breakout point. But I didn't have the willingness to do it. I just waited for the close.

Overall, I made money but I also made a lot of mistakes.

Don't stop learning.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

10 Hard Things About Trading

It is hard not to trade too big and go all in when you really believe in a trade but it is even harder to take a big loss if it goes against you.

It is hard to keep taking your entry signals when you are on a losing streak and it is also hard to miss a signal and watch it go on to be a big winner.

It is hard not to add to a losing trade when the price keeps looking better as it falls lower and lower but it is also hard to be on the wrong side of a trend.

It is hard to buy a breakout because it looks too high and it is also hard to miss out on the beginning of a big uptrend.

It is hard to cut a loss early with the ego wanting to be right about the trade.


It is hard to let a winning trade run when you would prefer a quick gain rather than a bigger long term gain.

It is hard to buy when everyone is fearful and hard to sell when everyone is greedy.

It is hard to trade through different types of markets, bull markets, bear markets, volatile, trending, and range bound markets because the rules keep changing.

It is hard to ever quit trading after you have tasted how sweet a big winning streak is and how life-changing it can be.

It is hard to convince your friends and family that there is a process to your trading and that you are not a degenerate gambler.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Take a Knee, Bastard

"With a steel sword like that, you can't even add a scratch to this ultimate shield." - Greed

Earlier this week, I had a conversation with my mentor.


And with a fellow bastard.


But despite the motivations, the guidance, I was too stubborn, too greedy, too foolish.

Friday.
I was all in on MCP at 4.18.

Monday.
I sold a few minutes after the open.
My cutpoint has not been hit yet. I just sold.
Why? Because I wanted to daytrade again.
"I can just make a quick profit from here and roll it over to there. EZ panizi."
So I daytraded WEB and IMI thinking I could replicate what I did last week.
But I was wrong. The situation has changed. The chart has changed. The market has changed.
I lost in both trades. MCP went up. Told myself that it's fine.

Tuesday.
This time, I was all in on ARA from yesterday's close.
After a few minutes, I sold 2/3 and daytraded, you've guessed it. WEB. F*cking WEB.
Lost again. At closing, I bought TECH because it broke out of 24.00, a really significant resistance.
I also bought CAL at 3.55.

Wednesday.
I sold half of CAL at 4.00.
"Good work. That somehow covered our losses in ARA and WEB." I told myself.
"Maybe I can make more." So instead of waiting for the breakout of 4.15
I averaged up at 4.03. Then at 4.06. 4.02 Until I was all in. It didn't break out. It broke down.
I sold when it went below the opening price. I gave back what I made. And then some.

But I didn't stop there. "It just takes one trade to get it all back."
I was revenge trading. I was f*cking revenge f*cking trading!
I bought IMP at 22.40. "This stock is capable of making big upmoves." I'm good with this.
Then I saw ARA. It was back to 3.20 levels. "At 3.45 this will be a borg." I said.
I sold IMP at 22.25 and bought ARA at 3.25.
I bought TECH at 24.90 and went on commute to work.
When I got to the office, ARA was 3.05. I sold.
TECH was 24.80. I sold.

It has only been three days and I have already made 15 trades.
That's right. Fifteen f*cking trades.
Out of fifteen f*cking trades, only two were winners. Only two.



Please bear with me.
Because now I'm going to delve deeper into myself.
I need to know the reasons why I made these terrible decisions.
What got me thinking the way I was.
Sometimes, the only way out is through.

MCP
Bought 4:18, Sold 4.10
Error: Fear of Missing Out on ARA.

WEB
Bought 6:22, Sold 6.16, 5.88
Error: The urge to daytrade even if the set-ups are not that good.

ARA
Bought 3.02, Sold 2.98 (bottom, whipsawed)
Error: No conviction. Sold after 18 minutes even if daytrading was not the plan.

MCP
Bought 4.25, Sold 4.25, 4.28
Error: Fear of Missing out on ARA. (ARA closed 3.18, I was right. Need to go all in.)

IMI
Bought 6.89, Sold 6.85
Error: NONE

ARA
Bought 3.18, Sold 3.18, 3.10
Error: The urge to daytrade WEB even if there was nothing good with the chart.

WEB
Bought 4.85, Sold 4.71
Error: This shouldn't have been traded. There was nothing in it.

TECH
Bought 24.20, Sold 24.35
Error: Breakout of 24.00 but still sold so I can buy more CAL for daytrading.

CAL
Bought 3.55, Sold 4.08
Error: Should have sold everything. It was supposed to be a quick trade.

CAL
Bought 4.03, 4.06, 4.02, Sold 3.85, 3.81
Error: Did not wait for the best entry. A breakout to 4.14. Hope.

JAS
Bought 4.10, Sold 3.94
Error: Chased

IMP
Bought 22.40, Sold 22.25
Error: Revenge trade.

ARA
Bought 3.25, Sold 3.05
Error: Fear of Missing Out. Chased. Best entry was a breakout of 3.29.

TECH
Bought 24.90, Sold 24.80
Error: Fear of Missing Out. Just wanting to have something where I was right in hindsight.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

I lost money.
And I was lost.


____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Sir Lance and Ms Akio, they were right. But I was too stubborn. I thought I was invincible. I thought I could just make money that fast. And when I lost, I felt I had to gain it all back faster and make more than I lost. How stupid could I be?

I'm sorry Sir Lance.
I know you never failed to remind me of my past mistakes and what I should do.
I broke the rules.
I ignored the lessons.
I jumped from stock to stock.
I traded without plans.
I'm probably one, if not, the worst student the tribe has ever had.





Friday, August 19, 2016

Testing Daytrading

I kind of lack motivation to write lately so forgive me for this post will be quite short.

I've been in a trading yoyo and I want to focus my energy on studying my errors.

Here are my trades for the last ten days four days of which were spent on purging.











And that's it.

Monday, July 18, 2016

July Quota Achieved

I'm still thinking of what my monthly quota should be.
I thought of starting with 10% but I'd like to challenge myself to see if I could make 20% this July.
Here's my ONLY trade for the past 3 (close to 4) weeks.





As you can see, this was an all in trade.
There are some things I considered before I entered with volume.
I asked myself these questions. (credits to Sir Lancelot for this very important lesson)

1. Will I be able to execute my plan with huge volume and not panic if it goes the other way?
- Because I did a test buy at 2.73, buying more on 3.20 levels won't make my Average Entry Price that high which means I can handle the swings in price. I won't panic if it goes down. Aside from that, the stock is in AOTS.

2. Am I willing to wait X number of days for the play to materialize?
- Yes. This was a trend following trade for me. I challenged myself if I could hold this for a month. Because if I do, I could nail future set-ups like this. I used the previous box top as trail stop which is why I sold yesterday.

3. Will I not be tempted if I see other stocks start to fly?
- Hardest part for me. You have SPH, NOW, IMP, ALT, APO, APX and other stocks that went up while my pick was consolidating. But I had conviction on this trade and of equal importance, I have a plan. All I have to do is follow it.

I sold yesterday when the previous box's top, which also happens to be a psychological support, failed to hold.

Gained +25% overall on this trade.

Monday, July 11, 2016

The Chartist's Offering

"The test of our progress is not whether we add more 
to the abandunce of those who have much;
it is whether we provide enough 
for those who have too little."
- Franklin D. Roosevelt

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Before commencement of the Bastard Program, 
I was asked about my RAK (Random Act of Kindness).
I told Sir Lancelot that my RAK isn't really "random" because it won't be for strangers.
My RAK is for my nieces and nephew.

But first, let me tell you a bit about myself which is the reason why I chose this RAK..

I came from a poor family. My mother raised me all by herself. When I was in elementary, it was my aunts and uncles who supported and financed my studies. I was a scholar since Grade 1 and the monthly allowance of 150 pesos from the city government was a big help.

Then came high school. I transferred to a different scholarship program and the only reason is because it gave more "support". Yet it was still the same. It wasn't enough. Even if I was in public school. I remember that one time a classmate of mine approached me and gave me 50 pesos.
"Eto yung baon mo pinabibigay ni Nanang ****. Nagpunta sa bahay kanina. Iabot ko daw 'to sayo."
That was when I realized, my mother didn't have anything in her pocket. Zero. She had to ask her siblings again for help. I graduated and went to college.

This time. I had no more scholarship grants. It was one of my relatives who is a staff at school who paid for my tuition fee - as salary deduction. And so it went on like that for two years until I was able to get a scholarship from a politician's foundation. I became an Academic Scholar and was included in the Dean's List. I was able finish college.

But this post is not about me.
This is about three little kids who have big dreams.
Let me introduce them to you.
Forgive me for blocking their faces.
These kids are my relatives.
I don't have a troll account and I'd like to keep my identity anonymous.


This is Kiddo #1.
The big sister.
She's in Grade 4.
Very polite and courteous.
Always taking care of her siblings.


Kiddo #2.
Grade 2.
Very playful and energetic as it is with all little boys.
This is the kid whom I give cars and toy soldiers as gifts.


This is Kiddo #3.
The youngest of the three.
She's in kindergarten.
Very timid but has a really cute smile.
Tell her you'll take a picture and she'll pose right away.


It pains me to say this, these kids were abandoned by their parents and were left to my cousin's care. My cousin who just got unemployed three months ago. But he's the kind of guy who never gives up. His persistence paid off and he's just started on his new job last month.

I'm glad I was able to buy the kids' school supplies for this school year in the nick of time.
Their classes started June 6 and we were only able to buy them June 5.
There's a National Book Store branch just a stone's throw away from their house.
It is very accessible to them.
It's just that they didn't have the finances to buy what they need.


These are some of the notebooks.
There are a lot more of these things.
My cousin failed on taking pictures of all of them.


Kiddo #2 wanted the Iron Man bag.
Kiddo #3 likes Hello Kitty.
Kiddo #1 just wanted a pink and simple one.


Treated them to Jollibee right after.
Bida ang saya.


Just like what my aunts and uncles did for me, I'm extending my blessings to these kids. I plan to help these kids graduate college so they can make a better course in their lives. Right now, I can only afford to help them with their school supplies and the occasional expenses that will come along as they go through school life. But someday, these kids will be our family's next generation of professionals. I haven't asked Kiddo #3 yet but Kiddo #1 wants to be a teacher and Kiddo #2 wants to be a policeman.


One important thing that I've learned in life is this.
The more I gave, the more I was given.
So when God blesses you financially, don't raise your standard of living.
Raise your standard of giving.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Class Dismissed!

"When I, who is called a "weapon" or a "monster", fight a real monster,
I can fully realize that I am just a "human".

Friday, June 24, 2016

A Bastard's Guide To Faking Profitability

There's a myriad of stock market personalities present in social media.

Trolls, legit, legit trolls, gurus, veterans.

Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.

Technology has allowed easy access to these people's ideas which add up to a newbie's confusion on what's right or wrong or better yet, who's profitable and not profitable.

But there's a way to make yourself look like a guru or give people the impression that you are consistently profitable. If you want to know how, read on.


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Step 1: Create a Facebook account. If you already have a Facebook account and don't want to use it, create a Facebook Page instead. This is where you will post your analyses. If you're making a page, make sure the name is catchy so that you will have more followers. Here are a few examples:

"The Extremely Profitable Trader"
"Mr Bagger Hunter"
"The Technical Technician"
"Money Machine"
"Fundamental Fund"
"Pak! Ganern Trading"
"EZ Tradez, EZ Lyf"

Step 2: Once you have a decent number of followers. You can start by posting news and other articles related to trading so people would get the impression that you are doing your homework and that you know what you're doing. Comment on BREXIT and other fundamental happenings even if you buy and sell based on the chart. This is because you should know everything. Once you get people engaged, it's time to drop the bomb.

Step 3: Post your analyses on different trading groups or on your own wall.

Step 4: Post your trading transactions. But don't post everything. Just post the buy transactions that would give people the idea that you are currently up on a certain stock.

Note: Never post SELL transactions if it is a losing trade. You don't want to let people see that you were wrong. Remember, if you're profitable, you never lose.


Reality

Step 5: When after posting a stock chart  with buy signal or your buy transactions, the stock goes down, stay quiet. If you were able to sell at breakeven or even at 1% gain, post the SELL transactions and say "Whew! Got out before the sell down. The beauty of my trading system."

Step 6: If the stock goes up, be a credit-grabber and say that you've foreseen it but you didn't buy because there are better picks based on your system. If the chart you posted was 1 year ago, grab credit for that too.

"Check out my post 3 years ago. The huge volume that time was a give away for today's rally."

Step 7: If people ask about your trading system, don't lie. Explain it to them to the best of your ability. Remember, this is your trading system we're talking about. This makes Step 8 of utmost importance.

Step 8: Your trading system must be as vague as possible so that you can turn any argument from anyone who used your system and lost money. The more signals your trading system have, the more stocks that go up you can grab credit for.


And that's it. See how simple it is?

So next time you see a stock market fellow claiming profitability or a high win rate, keep in mind that you can do that too.

Now you know.







Sunday, June 12, 2016

Impetus

It started with a private message on Facebook.


I wasn't really expecting this because I knew I already missed my chance the last time they opened the program which was this February and I was really disappointed with myself on missing such an opportunity.

HERE's my previous post about it.

But when I got the invitation, I didn't really know how I felt. I still can't believe it.

I was bursting with joy as I read the message smiling.

"How in the world did I get an invitation to join the Bastard Program?"

But at the same time, I was scared. You know that feeling when you bought something and once you've got a hold of it, you try to find the worst thing about it? Cognitive dissonance.

I was scared of the things I may have to give up. I was scared of all the things that I may lose. And scared of all the things that I will have to go through during the course.

I work from afternoon til midnight while the course is 8:30PM - 10:30PM. How am I supposed to pull this off?

I asked myself,
"Are my desires worth the cost?"

I messaged my would-be mentor right after.


You may have noticed that the program doesn't come for free. You have to "Pay It Forward".

For other people, it's possible that the hardest part for them would be #lettinggo of their losing trades. They have somehow developed an emotional connection to their stock positions that they become afraid of cutting their losses. They have this connection because of several possible reasons.

The losses are already too big and they think #itstoolate to cut.
They've been #holdingon to the stock for too long.
They have big egos.
Their guru has the same stock even if there are no pics.

If there's anything that worried me, it would be the Purge. You can read about it HERE.

Cutting losses was never a problem. I've said before that I came from -70% and traded my way back to breakeven only to be -34% right now. It's not that I don't feel anything whenever I cut losses. You will always feel something. But each time you do it, you become desensitized. And when you do it over and over again over a considerable amount of time, you'll get to a point that all it takes is a mere smirk to forget about it. Zeefreaks just slept on a P1M loss.

I've been trading for two years and I've learned a lot. I've tried different indicators and used real money. I never paper traded even once.

Taking the course would mean that at some point, I will have to rid myself of most if not everything that I have learned since I started this endeavor.

That was what worried me.

But then again, you cannot gain something without sacrificing something else in return.

Now let's do some purging.


The first task was to close all my positions. I was given one week. I didn't have any qualms. I really needed rest. In fact, I wasn't holding any stock that time because I had just cut losses on my latest holdings. If there's one thing that I learned that I could take with me through the course, it is to cut losses and #moveon.

Then I was tasked to leave all Facebook groups, chat groups, and any other affiliations.
I left.
I had to unfollow any market personalities, subscriptions, or any website related to the stock market.
I did.

I think you know where I'm getting at.


Then I was put on a trading ban. On a time where almost all stocks are rallying.

PX 5.70 - 7.50
PXP 2.20 - 4.90
AGF 2.80 - 4.50
DD 38.00 - 49.00
ATN 0.3600 - 0.5400

If I traded using my system, I would've caught most of them especially PX and PXP.
Believe me.
It took everything I had to not trade. And it took a lot to convince myself that I had to let those trades go. To me, it was the ultimate form of delayed gratification.


But then again, a lesson without pain is meaningless.

The training started May 2, Monday. A lot of people dream of learning the Zeefreaks System. Other people who could be more capable with bigger ports and with extensive experience. But I was chosen instead. I'm very very thankful and I don't plan to disappoint those who believe in me.

I wasn't lucky. There's no such thing as luck, only blessings. If you haven't received what you asked for, it's not because you've ran out of luck or because you're unlucky. It's because you're not yet ready to receive those blessings. I guess I'm ready.

I honestly didn't know what to expect. I #letgo of everything that I have learned before. I poured out what was in my cup as much as I can. I listened very intently. I jotted down notes. Not just notes but whole sentences even paragraphs. I need to nail these lessons. Otherwise, these blessings would be #takenforgranted.

The first part was about Moving Averages. Five minutes into the lesson and I was aghast. These past two years I thought I was doing the right thing. I wasn't. That's why my port is negative. If it wasn't for this program, it would've taken me a couple more years to realize it.

After the moving average lessons, I was finally given the chance to trade. But I can only use 10% of my port. I was to apply what I have learned.

This was the result.


But I was only able to sell it at 0.3550 for a 10.94% gain.

"How could I have maximized my gains? I need to learn more."

The next lesson was about Boxes and Bosses. Wait.. what?


It isn't something new. It's been used for almost a hundred years by now and it still works.

What blew my mind is this.
All it took was a different way of seeing things.
A different perspective.
A different approach.
A different mindset - a fictional character's mindset.

Everytime we have class, I learn something new.
Everytime I review my notes, the lessons become clearer.
Everytime I do my homework, new questions pop into my head.
Everytime I look at charts, curiosity abounds and I can't help but apply what I've learned.

But I tell you.
It's not easy.
It's not like what typically happens in school where the teacher arrives and quickly writes on the blackboard while talking and you have to copy whatever words or symbols appear. It is discussed and a few moments later, the homework is given.

Shout out to my mentor for being extraordinarily patient.

Some people may think, "Maybe he's just a slow-learner. The Zeefreaks System is supposed to be simple. Why did it look like he had a hard time digesting that lesson?"

If that's what you think, get into the program and be my guest.

It doesn't matter if you have the highest intellectual capacity. Or if your IQ is at par with Garry Kasparov. Trading takes the smartest people and smashes them into the pavement every single day.

The Zeefreaks system is simple. Yes. But your enemy is really strong. Because it's you. And unless you "unlearn" your current beliefs, you won't make any progress.

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In case you're wondering, here's my portfolio performance since Day 1.

(Before the lesson proper. Right after the purge.)


(Application of current lessons. Only 10% of port is allowed.)


I was allowed only to do EOD trades. This was originally an all in on DD at 52.00 last May 23 but I didn't have the patience and sold half to buy NOW.

NOW trade didn't work out. Sold at a -10% loss due to bearish engulfing on May 30 (saved my ass).

Bought LBC at 12.50 on May 31. Sold at 11.60 the following day. What a rip!


Went back all in on DD increasing my AEP from 52.60 to 54.50.

I sold half of DD at 59.75 thinking it would encounter resistance at 60.00. It didn't. Instead it went up 7.68% the next day. This time I sold my remaining half. The next day, it went to 80.00. This is what I get for not following rules.

Bought PLC at 1.00 last June 6. It closed 13.40% up. I didn't sell because my target price was between 1.20 - 1.25. I averaged up at 1.06 making my average 1.03.


I sold all PLC at 1.01 before Friday's close because I was expecting a rally when it made a hammer the day before and it hit my time stop.

Bought PX when it made a new 52-week High last Thursday. There are other confluences but I'm not sure if I'm allowed to reveal it. But everything was textbook. Added more PX on Friday's close.

Bought PXP on Friday's close based on previous lessons.
Signals aren't as strong as PX but "when the system says "buy", you buy".

I wanted to post the latest screenshot of my port but:


Based on last Friday's close, I am down -6.62% from when I started the course.
But to think that my mentor was down -30% when he started was very encouraging to me.
I need to study more.