Monday, December 7, 2015

The Problem Lies In My Way Of Thinking

My last post was way back in October which was roughly 2 months ago.
I'm really a crappy writer and barely have time to update this blog.
I'd rather do post-analysis of my trades than update this.
But right now, I'm not seeing much opportunities in the market.


If we go below 6,500 we're doomed.


And since I have time, I'll post my winning trades.
Don't ask me why I won't post losing trades because come on, who in his right mind would choose to take a screenshot of a losing trade instead of cutting his losses right away?
That's why you don't see the ZFTribe post losing trades.
Cutting losses is more important.
I'm not a member of the Tribe.
Just a fan.
A BIG fan.

I just noticed that I started this blog October so I wasn't able to post my trophy trade which was in September.

Here it is:









As you may have noticed, my total account equity before the ION trade was a mere P35,000 which is roughly 30% of my total invested capital P114,000.
Yes, I was down 70% for my entire career as a trader.
But this ION trade, not only gave me a 3x bagger (4.5x bagger if I had more experience), it also changed my mindset A LOT.

I realized that I have no problem in finding stocks that I believe should be going up in a few days or weeks. I can find them. (or maybe it's just because we're in a bull market)

THE PROBLEM LIES IN MY WAY OF THINKING.

I am able to catch a trend/momentum early before it spikes or goes parabolic, but:
- I don't have the confidence to trade the set-up
- I don't have the patience to wait for optimum risk-reward ratio (i just go in)
- And when I'm in, I am not able to maximize my gains

I have no problem cutting losses.
When you buried yourself -70% deep, you should have experienced cutting losses like crazy by now.

On this ION trade, I went all in at 0.69 but it didn't get filled. So I bought at the close of 0.72. It went up, I sold at 1.00 which was ABSOLUTELY A TERRIBLE DECISION. I realized I just wanted to book my profits right away. Next selling point was at 2.32, which was ANOTHER ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE DECISON because it was making new 52-week highs. It went as high as 4.18 and I held. It went down -12% and I held. I knew in myself that I had to sell because it was a BLOW OFF. But something's telling me not to. Maybe a colleague or a rumor that the target was 8.00 pesos. So much error. So much greed.



And greed got me.

I held until it went back to 2.31 which was technically a sell signal for me because it closed below the 20day Moving Average. I closed all my positions at this point.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

October Picks (Week 2) Results

In case you're wondering what I did last week,

I know, my portfolio isn't THAT BIG. I only have a little above a hundred thousand pesos which took me more than a year to save up. But this trade gave me a 36% profit (about 17,000 pesos) in a span of a day if you don't count the weekend. That's like a payday's worth for me. The stock went down for 2 days and on the third day it almost went to ceiling again only to close negative for the day. I don't know what's going to happen. No one knows. But from what I see in the chart, it's over. I know, I could've held on to my shares and "stayed disciplined" and held on to it. But that wasn't the plan. The plan was to sell at 0.80/sh which was my target price. It was a good trade.



Here's what happened on my test buy in MED:
I wasn't able to sell it at 0.70/sh. I cut it because it seems like the 20ma won't hold. Overall, just following the plan.

Here's another trade:

And another one:
This is my biggest problem. I sometimes can't control emotions when I really feel good about a stock. This broke out of its 200ma and I went BIG (based on my account size). Only to find the stock close below the 200ma.

But my stupidity doesn't stop at that.
Another BIG bet. And you've guessed it. Closed lower for the day.

Told you. My FOMO is STRONG.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

False Prophets

It's everyone's goal to make sure money fast and it is human nature to want the easy way out.

When I was fairly new in trading, I asked strangers about the next hot stock.
I joined private chatrooms with real-time updates on what stocks are moving.
I joined facebook groups with tons of analyses saying why this certain stock is bound to go up.
I tried to find answers.
I wanted to get them fast.
And then I found him.


Anyone that comes to mind?

Just like you, I've been a victim of these false prophets or gurus or whatever.
Because when you're new at something, you try to find someone who's good at it and learn his ways.
And besides,
Who wouldn't want to just ask someone what stock is going to rally when, then make tons of money?

I was like this back then.
Expecting profits.
Ignoring risks.
But after a few good losses, I stopped following his picks.
I stopped following his group.
I stopped following any group.
I worked my ass off on finding a strategy that works for me.
And I transcended to a new level of thinking.

And whenever I see posts about newbies losing their hard-earned money, this picture comes to mind:


Eh di wow.


Sunday, October 4, 2015

FULLMETAL CHARTIST


This is my blog.
My diary.
My journal.
Where I will post my ideas.
You don't have to read it if you don't want to.
I don't give recommendations because I'm not a guru.
And I don't have the responsibility of making money for anyone but myself.


I wanted a job where you don't have a boss.
Where you don't have to wake up 5, 6am in the morning to get dressed.
Only to be told to compute how much your boss earned that day.
And realize it would take you 10 years to earn the same amount.
I wanted a job where everything relies solely on you.
I wanted to be a trader.

My journey in trading, as it is with almost everyone else, is rough.
Now I'm not saying that I'm already a profitable trader consistently.
That's the goal.
But before I started, I knew that it will not be a walk in the park.
I knew it will take years.
I knew there will be losses.
I was even convinced that there will come a time that I would lose ALL of my hard-earned money.
I knew that it will take every bit of hardwork, confidence, perseverance, intellect, and cash in order to succeed in this endeavor.
I knew there will be sacrifices.
And I didn't know what they would be..

But I wanted to be a trader. And I'm willing to pay the price.



I knew and I believed, that being a trader is the path for me.
And that I would be a successful one.

I started trading just a little less than 2 years ago. At the height of this great big bull market.
I joined lots of facebook groups each with their own gurus.
I joined Tsupitero.com, Trader's Apprentice Pilipinas, Faceless Trader, and many others.
I learned a lot from these groups. I downloaded every ebook I could find in their "files" section.
I devoured them. I tested the different indicators and systems.
Only to find out that some of them don't make sense to me. Some are pure bullshit.
Some works sometimes. And some makes pure sense to me.

I remember a guru from this certain group that I joined recommended me a book. And because he's a guru and I worship him (during that time), I downloaded it from the group page and started reading it and absorbing every bit of information I can store in my head.


The book says the trading system can detect at what price to buy, what price to sell, when to buy, and when to sell. It's literally saying it's the Holy Grail. And after sometime studying it with actual testing, it never really worked. Yet this guru is saying this book is all I need.

Yes.
This book is all I need to prove that you should not trust anyone in the stock market world.
Including me.

Dissatisfied, I continued my search for the Holy Grail.
The instrument that bypasses the Law of Equivalent Exchange.


Little did I know that I was desiring something that must not be desired.
I was on an endless pursuit of something that no one has ever obtained.
Therefore, I paid the price.


To be continued..