Sunday, March 20, 2016

A Lesson Without Pain Is Meaningless

Usually, I only take positions worth around P15,000 so that a 10% loss would only equate to P1,500. and I could move on easily to the next trade.

After a series of wins late February, I decided to increase my position size.


Instead of risking 0.50 - 1% of capital on my initial entries, I traded with 2% risk.

Needless to say, I at least doubled my size.

This is what happened:

MED : -10%
I bought this before closing at 0.63
Added more when it closed above 0.64 which was a resistance.
The day after, it closed at 0.58, I cut and lost 10%.

Where I went wrong:
2x recommended size.


CPM : -5%
I bought this because it was a Zeus Strike.
The day after, I sold it at 0.62 without waiting for the close.
I sold it because I wanted to buy something else.

Where I went wrong:
2x recommended size.
Buy signal was before closing. (almost End of Day)
Sell signal was before lunch. (price action not definitive)
I got shaken out by intraday fluctuations.


CYBR : Whipsaw
I bought this when it broke out of the 100ma and 200ma on the daily chart.
I waited for the close and added more.
The day after, I checked it right after the open and it was trading at 0.4600 levels.
I sold it.
After 2 hours, it's at 0.51 which means that it broke out of the 100ma on the weekly.
I bought it.
A day after, it closed at 0.49
I sold it.
Come Monday, I bought it again because it closed at 100ma weekly.
Tuesday, I sold.
What the hell just happened?

Where I went wrong:
2x recommended size.
Buy signal was End of Day.
Sell signal was intraday. (a few minutes after the open, price action not definitive)
I got shaken out by intraday fluctuations.


SUN : -8%
This closed at 1.05 on Friday.
I was so eager to have shares that I put an OH order at 1.07, just above the 100ma weekly.
Although the best entry would be at 1.02.
Monday's opening price was because of me.
I sold it after 2 days at 0.99 which was my cut point.

Where I went wrong:
Not waiting for the best risk-reward scenario.
Sell signal was before lunch. (price action not definitive)


After a few of these losses, my psychology became unstable.
I wanted to get back those losses so I traded with bigger sizes.
I looked for stocks that are moving up and bought them without thinking of the risks.

To top it all off, I was trading intraday despite the fact that I have sh*tty internet connection.

There are a lot of things going on in my mind right now.
Here are some of it.

I get whipsawed because I don't have conviction on my trade.
I don't have conviction on my trade because I have too much emotion.
I have too much emotion because I have too much size.
And too much size does not mean conviction.

I've also been thinking what would make me consider if what I'm feeling is whether the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) or Opportunity Cost.

Then a youtube video lesson answered it for me.

"Fear of missing out is when you buy a stock without a cutloss point."

It totally makes sense!
This is just what I needed to know.
This will help me stop me from chasing those high-flyers and taking unnecessary risks.

My account just fell to 5 digits and I've lost a lot of confidence.


For now, I'll go back to trading the size I'm comfortable with and work from there.

I've learned a lot these past 2 weeks.

Nothing can stop me from being a successful trader.
One day, I'll look back at this experience and tell myself, "bobo mo! hahahah!"

Only time stands in my way.

9 comments:

  1. Shit happens. But when you overcome, you become better. Keep it up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Sir Zee. I'm kinda used to taking losses since my first year trading was suicide. But I'm getting more desensitized and taking a loss never bothers me (now) as long as I followed my cutpoint. But getting whipsawed tells a different story.

      Delete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. what do you mean by Buy signal was before closing. (almost End of Day) as one of your errors? Do you wait the signal at closing to confirm? if ZS happens during mid day, do you enter the trade immediately or wait until end of day?

      Delete
    2. Hi Sir jwc,

      Buy signal was before closing but the sell signal was before lunch. This means that the buying criteria was different from the selling criteria. And because I sold before lunch, the price action for the day wass not yet complete therefore making the candle "not definitive" (bullish or bearish).

      As much as possible, I wait for the closing because I'm an end of day trader and my analyses are based on the daily chart. However, there are times that I feel a stock has such a strong breakout that I had to buy even before lunch.

      If ZS happens during mid day, I would buy provided the current price is very close to the ZS point. This means that I have a clear cut point (below the ZS point) making the risk-reward considerable enough to take the trade. If the stock has surged upward so much that it leaves the ZS point behind, the risk-reward would not be attractive enough unless I find another cut point which could be based on other technical factors like horizontal support.

      Delete
  3. ah i see. thanks for the insight!

    ReplyDelete