A Bastard's Guide To Faking Profitability

There's a myriad of stock market personalities present in social media.

Trolls, legit, legit trolls, gurus, veterans.

Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.

Technology has allowed easy access to these people's ideas which add up to a newbie's confusion on what's right or wrong or better yet, who's profitable and not profitable.

But there's a way to make yourself look like a guru or give people the impression that you are consistently profitable. If you want to know how, read on.

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Step 1: Create a Facebook account. If you already have a Facebook account and don't want to use it, create a Facebook Page instead. This is where you will post your analyses. If you're making a page, make sure the name is catchy so that you will have more followers. Here are a few examples:

"The Extremely Profitable Trader"

"Mr Bagger Hunter"

"The Technical Technician"

"Money Machine"

"Fundamental Fund"

"Pak! Ganern Trading"

"EZ Tradez, EZ Lyf"

Step 2: Once you have a decent number of followers. You can start by posting news and other articles related to trading so people would get the impression that you are doing your homework and that you know what you're doing. Comment on BREXIT and other fundamental happenings even if you buy and sell based on the chart. This is because you should know everything. Once you get people engaged, it's time to drop the bomb.

Step 3: Post your analyses on different trading groups or on your own wall.

Step 4: Post your trading transactions. But don't post everything. Just post the buy transactions that would give people the idea that you are currently up on a certain stock.

Note: Never post SELL transactions if it is a losing trade. You don't want to let people see that you were wrong. Remember, if you're profitable, you never lose.

Reality

Step 5: When after posting a stock chart  with buy signal or your buy transactions, the stock goes down, stay quiet. If you were able to sell at breakeven or even at 1% gain, post the SELL transactions and say "Whew! Got out before the sell down. The beauty of my trading system."

Step 6: If the stock goes up, be a credit-grabber and say that you've foreseen it but you didn't buy because there are better picks based on your system. If the chart you posted was 1 year ago, grab credit for that too.

"Check out my post 3 years ago. The huge volume that time was a give away for today's rally."

Step 7: If people ask about your trading system, don't lie. Explain it to them to the best of your ability. Remember, this is your trading system we're talking about. This makes Step 8 of utmost importance.

Step 8: Your trading system must be as vague as possible so that you can turn any argument from anyone who used your system and lost money. The more signals your trading system have, the more stocks that go up you can grab credit for.

And that's it. See how simple it is?

So next time you see a stock market fellow claiming profitability or a high win rate, keep in mind that you can do that too.

Now you know.

Impetus

It started with a private message on Facebook.

I wasn't really expecting this because I knew I already missed my chance the last time they opened the program which was this February and I was really disappointed with myself on missing such an opportunity.

HERE's my previous post about it.

But when I got the invitation, I didn't really know how I felt. I still can't believe it.

I was bursting with joy as I read the message smiling.

"How in the world did I get an invitation to join the Bastard Program?"

But at the same time, I was scared. You know that feeling when you bought something and once you've got a hold of it, you try to find the worst thing about it? Cognitive dissonance.

I was scared of the things I may have to give up. I was scared of all the things that I may lose. And scared of all the things that I will have to go through during the course.

I work from afternoon til midnight while the course is 8:30PM - 10:30PM. How am I supposed to pull this off?

I asked myself,

"Are my desires worth the cost?"

I messaged my would-be mentor right after.

You may have noticed that the program doesn't come for free. You have to "Pay It Forward".

For other people, it's possible that the hardest part for them would be #lettinggo of their losing trades. They have somehow developed an emotional connection to their stock positions that they become afraid of cutting their losses. They have this connection because of several possible reasons.

The losses are already too big and they think #itstoolate to cut.
They've been #holdingon to the stock for too long.
They have big egos.
Their guru has the same stock even if there are no pics.

If there's anything that worried me, it would be the Purge. You can read about it HERE.

Cutting losses was never a problem. I've said before that I came from -70% and traded my way back to breakeven only to be -34% right now. It's not that I don't feel anything whenever I cut losses. You will always feel something. But each time you do it, you become desensitized. And when you do it over and over again over a considerable amount of time, you'll get to a point that all it takes is a mere smirk to forget about it. Zeefreaks just slept on a P1M loss.

I've been trading for two years and I've learned a lot. I've tried different indicators and used real money. I never paper traded even once.

Taking the course would mean that at some point, I will have to rid myself of most if not everything that I have learned since I started this endeavor.

That was what worried me.

But then again, you cannot gain something without sacrificing something else in return.

Now let's do some purging.

The first task was to close all my positions. I was given one week. I didn't have any qualms. I really needed rest. In fact, I wasn't holding any stock that time because I had just cut losses on my latest holdings. If there's one thing that I learned that I could take with me through the course, it is to cut losses and #moveon.

Then I was tasked to leave all Facebook groups, chat groups, and any other affiliations.

I left.

I had to unfollow any market personalities, subscriptions, or any website related to the stock market.

I did.

I think you know where I'm getting at.

Then I was put on a trading ban. On a time where almost all stocks are rallying.

PX 5.70 - 7.50

PXP 2.20 - 4.90

AGF 2.80 - 4.50

DD 38.00 - 49.00

ATN 0.3600 - 0.5400

If I traded using my system, I would've caught most of them especially PX and PXP.

Believe me.

It took everything I had to not trade. And it took a lot to convince myself that I had to let those trades go. To me, it was the ultimate form of delayed gratification.

But then again, a lesson without pain is meaningless.

The training started May 2, Monday. A lot of people dream of learning the Zeefreaks System. Other people who could be more capable with bigger ports and with extensive experience. But I was chosen instead. I'm very very thankful and I don't plan to disappoint those who believe in me.

I wasn't lucky. There's no such thing as luck, only blessings. If you haven't received what you asked for, it's not because you've ran out of luck or because you're unlucky. It's because you're not yet ready to receive those blessings. I guess I'm ready.

I honestly didn't know what to expect. I #letgo of everything that I have learned before. I poured out what was in my cup as much as I can. I listened very intently. I jotted down notes. Not just notes but whole sentences even paragraphs. I need to nail these lessons. Otherwise, these blessings would be #takenforgranted.

The first part was about Moving Averages. Five minutes into the lesson and I was aghast. These past two years I thought I was doing the right thing. I wasn't. That's why my port is negative. If it wasn't for this program, it would've taken me a couple more years to realize it.

After the moving average lessons, I was finally given the chance to trade. But I can only use 10% of my port. I was to apply what I have learned.

This was the result.

But I was only able to sell it at 0.3550 for a 10.94% gain.

"How could I have maximized my gains? I need to learn more."

The next lesson was about Boxes and Bosses. Wait.. what?

It isn't something new. It's been used for almost a hundred years by now and it still works.

What blew my mind is this.

All it took was a different way of seeing things.

A different perspective.

A different approach.

A different mindset - a fictional character's mindset.

Everytime we have class, I learn something new.

Everytime I review my notes, the lessons become clearer.

Everytime I do my homework, new questions pop into my head.

Everytime I look at charts, curiosity abounds and I can't help but apply what I've learned.

But I tell you.

It's not easy.

It's not like what typically happens in school where the teacher arrives and quickly writes on the blackboard while talking and you have to copy whatever words or symbols appear. It is discussed and a few moments later, the homework is given.

Shout out to my mentor for being extraordinarily patient.

Some people may think, "Maybe he's just a slow-learner. The Zeefreaks System is supposed to be simple. Why did it look like he had a hard time digesting that lesson?"

If that's what you think, get into the program and be my guest.

It doesn't matter if you have the highest intellectual capacity. Or if your IQ is at par with Garry Kasparov. Trading takes the smartest people and smashes them into the pavement every single day.

The Zeefreaks system is simple. Yes. But your enemy is really strong. Because it's you. And unless you "unlearn" your current beliefs, you won't make any progress.

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In case you're wondering, here's my portfolio performance since Day 1.

(Before the lesson proper. Right after the purge.)

(Application of current lessons. Only 10% of port is allowed.)

I was allowed only to do EOD trades. This was originally an all in on DD at 52.00 last May 23 but I didn't have the patience and sold half to buy NOW.

NOW trade didn't work out. Sold at a -10% loss due to bearish engulfing on May 30 (saved my ass).

Bought LBC at 12.50 on May 31. Sold at 11.60 the following day. What a rip!

Went back all in on DD increasing my AEP from 52.60 to 54.50.

I sold half of DD at 59.75 thinking it would encounter resistance at 60.00. It didn't. Instead it went up 7.68% the next day. This time I sold my remaining half. The next day, it went to 80.00. This is what I get for not following rules.

Bought PLC at 1.00 last June 6. It closed 13.40% up. I didn't sell because my target price was between 1.20 - 1.25. I averaged up at 1.06 making my average 1.03.

I sold all PLC at 1.01 before Friday's close because I was expecting a rally when it made a hammer the day before and it hit my time stop.

Bought PX when it made a new 52-week High last Thursday. There are other confluences but I'm not sure if I'm allowed to reveal it. But everything was textbook. Added more PX on Friday's close.

Bought PXP on Friday's close based on previous lessons.

Signals aren't as strong as PX but "when the system says "buy", you buy".

I wanted to post the latest screenshot of my port but:

Based on last Friday's close, I am down -6.62% from when I started the course.

But to think that my mentor was down -30% when he started was very encouraging to me.

I need to study more.

Saturn Devouring His Son

Countless lives have been ruined this week as they experienced another case of demagoguery.

Let's not sugarcoat things.

If you made money, good for you.

If you lost, think about this.

You buy a stock being hyped even if you think it's already ridiculously high. Why?

It's either because you're already under the demagogue's spell.

Or it's because you think you're special. That you can get away faster than everyone else can.

Let me slap you in the face.

Enduring a loss of -76% from 17.00 to 4.00 is not LOYALTY CHECK.

Enduring a loss of -76% from 17.00 to 4.00 is not STAYING POWER.

Enduring a loss of -76% from 17.00 to 4.00 is not CHANGE OF OWNERSHIP.

Enduring a loss of -76% from 17.00 to 4.00 does not mean THE DEAL IS ON.
Enduring a loss of -76% from 17.00 to 4.00 does not mean KASALI KA SA USAPAN.
Enduring a loss that BIG is UTTER STUPIDITY.

Do not rationalize your wrong decision.

Fix it immediately.

It's your money. Not his.

Don't be a victim.

The Demagogue

"Leave them alone: they are blind leaders of the blind. 

And if the blind leadeth the blind, both will fall into the ditch."  

Matthew 15:14

It's been a week since I separated myself from the stock market. This is the first time I stopped trading since, well, I started trading. So I cope by reviewing my notes and by writing this blog.

But there are posts here and there that give me an idea of how the market is doing. It seems that only a handful of stocks offer good risk-reward ratios. And only a select few can find them.

Newbies get slaughtered in times like this. They get frustrated with how hard it is to get their ports green. When that happens, they seek for help and confirmation.

Most of them find refuge in the perfect words of a guy we'll call

"The Demagogue"

The demagogue advocates action without deliberation appealing directly to the emotions of the newbie, poor and uninformed. He tells lies to stir up hysteria where your emotions are so strong that you behave in an uncontrolled way. He exploits crises to intensify popular support for his calls. If you oppose his views, you'll be accused of disloyalty.

And the common people fall into his trap.

The demagogue is a leader who tries to get support by making false claims and promises during arguments based on emotion rather than reason.

In a sense, he's like this guy.

(Click Here for an awesome video)

If you're just starting out in trading,

You'll be amazed by how this guy minces words.

What better way to get introduced to the stock market world than to hear stories with metaphors, similes, idioms, and other figures of speech.

You'll read terms you haven't seen before.

You'll see projections in charts that are too good to be true.

You'll find target prices that pierce the heavens.

And once you fall under his spell by the grace of his tongue,

You'll take his calls.

You'll use his "strategy".

You'll picture yourself with gains that go far beyond what the market has to offer.

You'll be devoured by Greed.

"Baggers! Baggers everywhere! 10,000%!"

He'll tell you that a 20% drop in IMP is a BUY.

He'll say that two consecutive 12% drops in NOW is a loyalty check.

You try to reason out.

But he'll just say this while other spellbound victims watch.

"Iyakin!"

Then reality comes in and f*cks you in the face.

It was too late.

You're balls deep.

You've lost your hard-earned cash.

You've lost your life savings.

You've lost your retirement money.

But don't fret.

Afterall, it's only..

YEAR 1 of 10.

From Test Buy To Greediness

It's amazing how the market punishes people who become conceited.

I refuse to entertain the idea that "maybe" I was like that yesterday.

But the results speak for themselves.

That's what makes the market unique.

It is an endless stream of opportunity that slaps you in the face if you don't know the rules.

One day you're doing great.

The next day you suck.

Here is how a single trade wiped out a week of gains.

Here are what I believe to be my errors:

#1 : I sold the laggard SSI in order to buy more IS where I was currently up 18% but I got greedy and bought too much that my AEP went SO close to the current price. My AEP was 0.405 after averaging up and the stock closed 0.4250.

#2 : Right after I bought it, I KNEW I WAS WRONG on buying that much. But I didn't reduce my position. I was hoping that this stock WILL go up tomorrow. Right then and there, I knew I was wrong. But I REFUSED TO ADMIT IT.

#3 : Today came and when I checked the market, the stock was down 10%. I sold 2/3 instead of selling everything.

"Mag-iwan ako 1/3 para kung tumaas man or bumalik sa 0.400 levels, breakeven yung remaining 1/3."

It didn't recover.

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I have a problem scaling up.

A Series of Bad Executions and Rationalization

Here's how I traded SSI.

SSI, Round 1:

I don't see anything wrong on how I traded this.

SSI, Round 2:

On this one however, I was wrong when I bought after the 50ma held as support because that would be averaging down and ignoring the fact that the initial support I looked at was the 20ma which has now given up and also means that the AOTS is no longer as strong as I thought.

My thesis was invalidated but because I'm too dumb to realize that, I held on to my shares.

I sold some when the 50ma failed to hold but still betting on the 100ma holding up. That's why I only sold 2/3.

During these times, I was telling myself that the 100ma is my last line of defense and that I would cut mercilessly if it goes below that.

I was rationalizing.

"Maybe it's still a good buy after it dropped a few cents."

I was rationalizing by looking at the 100ma and how the price stayed above it which wasn't the reason why I bought.

The thoughts I had which maybe just slightly different from the reasons I got in, were wrong.

I sold at 3.39 today just before lunch because the 100ma didn't hold.

Then, there was a knock on the door..

A Series of Good Executions and Proper Mindset

Here is how I traded NOW this April when I went back to trading 15k positions.

NOW, Round 1:

NOW, Round 2:

NOW, Round 3:

NOW, Round 4 & 5:

If only I could operate like this every single time.